Will “Election” be said on The Briefing next time?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Election” was said on The Briefing in 16 of 25 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 20, 2026 (64%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 64% (n=25, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 8, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 8 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Briefing with Jen Psaki
Election
- Probability
- 64% · n=25
- Settled
- 16/25 (64%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 0 of 2 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted; 4 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted; 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Counts: named speaker only
5 counted; 6 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Every settled listing
newest first · 25 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Election |  Kalshi | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 27, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 26, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Election | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “Election” said on The Briefing?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Election” was said on The Briefing in 16 of 25 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 20, 2026 (64%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026.
- What is the probability “Election” is said on The Briefing next time?
- 64%, from settlement history (n=25). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Briefing: ‘Election’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-briefing-with-jen-psaki/words/election (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-briefing-with-jen-psaki&word=election · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-briefing-with-jen-psaki&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP