The Briefing with Jen Psaki: Episode, Aug 17, 2026
Kalshi What will Jon Ossoff say during his MS NOW interview?
Markets
13 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 70%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 60%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | Yes | 58%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 55%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 48%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 29%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Nazi | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 52%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| USS Abraham Lincoln | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 32%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Weaponize / Weaponized / Weaponization | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 16%n=12 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPSAKIMENTION-26AUG17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP