The Briefing with Jen Psaki: Episode, Jun 2, 2026

Tue, Jun 2EpisodeHistory onlyThe Briefing with Jen Psaki

Updated

Markets

11 words · 6 settled yes

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultProbabilityMarket
Republican Yes77%n=14 from settlement history–
Election Yes71%n=8 from settlement history–
Trump 3+ timesYes64%n=2 from settlement history–
Corrupt / Corruption Yes64%n=10 from settlement history–
Healthcare Yes53%n=9 from settlement history–
Ballroom Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Economy / Economic No–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Iran / Iranian No50%n=3 from settlement history–
Oil / Gas / Gasoline No48%n=7 from settlement history–
Afford / Affordable / Affordability No44%n=7 from settlement history–
AI / Artificial Intelligence No43%n=5 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.

Transcript

No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPSAKIMENTION-26JUN02 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP