The Briefing with Jen Psaki: Episode, Apr 14, 2026
Kalshi What will Raphael Warnock say during The Briefing with Jen Psaki?
Markets
13 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 70%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | Yes | 53%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Pope | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ceasefire | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hormuz | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Kennedy / RFK | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE / TSA | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 30%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 27%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPSAKIMENTION-26APR14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP