The Briefing with Jen Psaki: Episode, Apr 7, 2026
Kalshi What will Wes Moore say during his MS NOW interview?
Markets
12 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Yes | 70%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 69%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | No | 63%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / TSA | No | 56%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | 50%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| NASA / Moon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPSAKIMENTION-26APR07 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP