Prime Minister's Questions, Apr 22, 2026
Polymarket What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Markets
27 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mr. Speaker 20+ times | Yes | 77%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Mr. Speaker 10+ times | Yes | 68%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| War | Yes | 67%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| NHS | Yes | 62%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Labor / Labor 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peter / Mandelson | Yes | 26%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Green | Yes | 25%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Mr. Speaker 30+ times | Yes | 20%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| U-Turn | No | 73%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | No | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 46%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 42%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Opposition 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sport | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Surveillance | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thank 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tolerance | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Europe | No | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Deeply Concerning | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Public Health | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Renewable | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shadow Secretary | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| United States | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Urgent | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 21%n=25 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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