Will “National Security” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “National Security” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 15, 2026 (100%), most recently on Apr 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
National Security
- Probability
- 52% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…has had a busy few weeks: tying himself in knots explaining why national security should not come at the expense of social security, and bumbling…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…everyone working around the clock to feed our country. Food security is national security, and we will continue to back British farming as a Government.…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…strengthening Europe’s role in the alliance, which remains the cornerstone of our national security. Yesterday the Prime Minister met with the Prime Minister of Norway,…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…must take the threat of missiles and drones hitting our country. Our national security requires the best possible missile defence system, including Royal Navy destroyers,…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | National Security |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 15, 2026 | National Security | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often is “National Security” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “National Security” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 15, 2026 (100%), most recently on Apr 22, 2026.
- What is the probability “National Security” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘National Security’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/national-security (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=national%20security · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP