What is the probability “Peter / Mandelson” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?

48%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will “Peter / Mandelson” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Name: Prime Minister's Questions: “Peter / Mandelson” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, “Peter / Mandelson” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Apr 22, 2026.

Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 02:29 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Prime Minister's Questions

Peter / Mandelson

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 8 PMQs: said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

John Lamont (Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk) (Con)otherPrime Minister's Questions, 24 June 2026 · Jun 24, 2026In transcript

…their match tonight against Brazil?Following the conviction of former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell for embezzlement, serious questions about governance and oversight remain unanswered. The…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.