Will “War” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “War” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 4 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 11, 2026 (100%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 59% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 4/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
War
- Probability
- 59% · n=4
- Settled
- 4/4 (100%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 2 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…politics and modern studies asked me about everything from climate change to war in the middle east. One young woman asked how young people can…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…more servicing our debt than we do on defence—almost double. There is war in Europe. Yesterday, Germany confirmed that Russia was behind the attack on…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…that our armed forces are not sucked into an aimless and dangerous war with Iran could—in fact, I believe they will—prove to be his most…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…business rate hikes. That much-loved family business, which has survived a world war and multiple recessions, has not be able to survive this Labour Government.…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…built stronger partnerships with the EU and kept us out of the war in Iran. I thank my hon. Friend for the contribution that she…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
PolymarketQuestions
- How often is “War” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “War” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 4 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 11, 2026 (100%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026.
- What is the probability “War” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 59%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘War’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/war (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=war · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP