Prime Minister's Questions, Jun 4, 2026
Polymarket What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Markets
24 words · 13 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mr. Speaker 20+ times | Yes | 82%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Mr. Speaker 10+ times | Yes | 78%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Reform | Yes | 77%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| NHS | Yes | 75%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| King / Queen | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Apologize | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Constituent / Constituency | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Police | Yes | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Investment | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Poverty | Yes | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Public Health | Yes | 24%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Sport | Yes | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Urgent | Yes | 19%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Defense | No | 55%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Mr. Speaker 30+ times | No | 41%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Kid | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Muslim | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Public School | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Transportation / Transport | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| United States | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 39%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| European Union | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Victim | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 14%n=32 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event-20260602155524008 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP