What is the probability “Kid” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?

32%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will “Kid” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Name: Prime Minister's Questions: “Kid” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Kid” was not said at the Prime Minister's Questions on any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1 of them.

32%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 17:13 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Prime Minister's Questions

Kid

Probability: 32% · n=2
Settled: 0/2 (0%)
Last 8 PMQs: said in 1 of 3 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Ed DaveyotherPrime Minister's Questions, 2 September 2026 · Sep 2, 2026In transcript

…the extra stress and anxiety that would have caused us when my kids were born. Women are even being taught how to give birth in…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Keir StarmerspeakerPrime Minister's Questions, 15 July 2026 · Jul 15, 2026In transcript

…her question, her support and her friendship for me, Vic and the kids. Whatever the challenge, she has always been there for us, particularly Vic…