Will Kevin Warsh say “Shock”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Shock” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 14, 2026.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press conferences; Jun 17, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 hearings have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kevin Warsh
Shock
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 3 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…So we removed a dose of accommodation. Consider the geopolitical landscape of shocks and uncertainty, and you begin to appreciate the resilience of the U.S.…
…the banking system. The economy is showing impressive resilience. Even with recent shocks, the trends are positive and reveal solid growth. Job gains have kept…
…elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. That paragraph…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2026 | Shock |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Kevin Warsh say “Shock”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Shock” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 14, 2026.
- What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “Shock” next time?
- 62%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: ‘Shock’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh/words/shock (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=shock · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kevin-warsh&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP