Will Kevin Warsh say “Uncertainty”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Kevin Warsh did not say “Uncertainty” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 14, 2026.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press conferences; Jun 17, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 hearings have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kevin Warsh
Uncertainty
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 3 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…short while ago, economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated—owing, in part, to geopolitical developments—domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity…
…of forecasting, a choice we consider especially prudent at these uncertain times. Uncertainty, however, does not mean a lack of clarity. For some households, businesses,…
…banking system. Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2026 | Uncertainty |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Kevin Warsh say “Uncertainty”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Kevin Warsh did not say “Uncertainty” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 14, 2026.
- What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “Uncertainty” next time?
- 24%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: ‘Uncertainty’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh/words/uncertainty (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=uncertainty · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kevin-warsh&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP