Will Kevin Warsh say “Restrictive”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh did not say “Restrictive” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 14, 2026.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press conferences; Jun 17, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 hearings have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kevin Warsh
Restrictive
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 3 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Hole, I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive. This view was widely shared by the Committee. So we removed a…
…ever to be reacting to real-time events. So they’re gauging themselves the—how restrictive the Treasury curve should be. And that, I think, has been a…
…but broadly I would say, there, Fed policy appears to be somewhat restrictive. I would have a hard time managing to say those words if…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2026 | Restrictive |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Kevin Warsh say “Restrictive”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh did not say “Restrictive” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 14, 2026.
- What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “Restrictive” next time?
- 24%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: ‘Restrictive’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh/words/restrictive (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=restrictive · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kevin-warsh&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP