# JD Vance (jd-vance) · panel 2025-11-21 · 20 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-25NOV21 · as_of 2026-10-24T02:06:57Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-21 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01 (under 2 panel transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-25NOV21 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of discussion with Breitbart News on November 20th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	9	8	0.89	YYYnYYYYY	1	1	0.68	hist	yes
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	2	2	1	YY	1	1	0.58	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	4	3	0.75	YnYY	1	1	0.55	hist	yes
American Dream	american dream	6	4	0.67	nYnYYY	1	0	0.55	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	4	3	0.75	YYYn	1	1	0.52	hist	yes
Investment	investment	3	2	0.67	nYY	1	0	0.52	hist	no
National Guard	national guard	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.51	hist	no
Border	border	4	2	0.5	nYnY	1	0	0.45	hist	yes
Election	election	4	2	0.5	YnnY	1	0	0.45	hist	yes
America First	america first	2	1	0.5	nY	1	0	0.44	hist	no
Middle East	middle east	2	1	0.5	Yn	1	0	0.43	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	7	3	0.43	YnnnYnY	1	0	0.42	hist	yes
Israel	israel	5	2	0.4	YnnnY	1	0	0.4	hist	no
Tax on Tips	tax on tip	3	1	0.33	nYn	1	0	0.39	hist	no
Stock Market	stock market	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.36	hist	no
China	china	6	2	0.33	YYnnnn	1	0	0.34	hist	yes
Healthcare	healthcare	5	1	0.2	nnnYn	1	1	0.32	hist	yes
ICE	ice	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.29	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.26	hist	no
Trillion	trillion	0	0			1	0	0.41	prior	no