Will JD Vance say “Cartel / Drug”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance said “Cartel / Drug” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 17, 2025 (100%), most recently on Dec 22, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 56% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Cartel / Drug
- Probability
- 56% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 4 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…now that are part of TrumpRX, the most significant reduction in prescription drug costs that we've seen in 60 years. And again, that's going to…
It was smuggled into Central and South America, and then the cartels would bring it into our country and a lot of our people would…
…the Caribbean because, when you take away a major source of illegal cartel revenue, which is the cocaine trade, the fentanyl trade, other sources of…
…and yet when the president took historic action to work with the drug companies to lower prescription drug prices, the Democrats did nothing to help…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2025 | Cartel / Drug |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Drug / Cartel | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Cartel / Drug”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance said “Cartel / Drug” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 17, 2025 (100%), most recently on Dec 22, 2025.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Cartel / Drug” next time?
- 56%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Cartel / Drug’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/cartel-or-drug (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=cartel%20%2F%20drug · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP