# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · keynote 2026-01-23 · 18 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JAN23 · as_of 2026-10-24T19:38:21Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-01-23 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 keynote transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JAN23 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Maria Bartiromo's WEF interview with Donald Trump, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	157	116	0.74	YYnnnnYYYn	1	1	0.71	hist	yes
Trillion	trillion	59	42	0.71	YYYYYYnYnn	1	1	0.7	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	90	58	0.64	nnnnYYYYYY	1	1	0.66	hist	yes
China	china	102	67	0.66	nnYYYYnYYn	1	1	0.64	hist	no
Eight War	eight war	41	25	0.61	YYYnnnYYnn	1	1	0.6	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	124	72	0.58	YYYnYYYYYn	1	1	0.6	hist	yes
Invested / Investment	invested|investment	14	8	0.57	nnnYYnnYYY	1	1	0.57	hist	yes
NATO	nato	43	21	0.49	nYYnnnYYYY	1	1	0.57	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	86	37	0.43	nnYYYnnYnn	1	1	0.57	hist	no
Stock Market	stock market	28	14	0.5	YYYYYnnYYY	1	1	0.56	hist	yes
Greenland	greenland	27	12	0.44	nYYnnYYYYY	1	1	0.56	hist	yes
Ukraine	ukraine	44	24	0.55	nnnYYnnYYn	1	1	0.53	hist	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	10	5	0.5	nnYYnYnYYn	1	1	0.53	hist	yes
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	39	15	0.38	nnnnnnYYnn	1	1	0.48	hist	yes
Home / Housing	home|housing	7	3	0.43	YYnnYnn	1	1	0.44	hist	no
Credit	credit	6	2	0.33	nYnnYn	1	1	0.42	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	241	22	0.09	nnnnnnYYnn	1	0	0.26	hist	no
Iceland	iceland	0	0			1	1	0.46	prior	no