# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-12-25 · 20 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC25 · as_of 2026-10-24T15:45:10Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-12-25 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC25 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Service Member Calls on December 24th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	res
Trillion	trillion	45	33	0.73	YYYYYnYnYn	0.7	no
Biden	biden	138	103	0.75	YnYYnYYYYn	0.65	no
Tariff	tariff	97	67	0.69	nYnnYnYYYn	0.64	yes
Olympics / 250	250|olympic	5	4	0.8	YYnYY	0.62	no
Nuclear	nuclear	71	45	0.63	YYYYYYnnYY	0.56	no
Hottest	hottest	105	58	0.55	nnnYYnnYYn	0.56	no
Eight Wars	eight war	24	15	0.62	YYnYnnYYYY	0.53	no
Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline	3	2	0.67	nYY	0.52	no
China	china	91	60	0.66	YnnnnnnnYn	0.52	yes
Border	border	82	49	0.6	YnYYYYnYYn	0.52	no
Election	election	54	32	0.59	YnYnnYnYYn	0.51	no
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	22	11	0.5	nYYnnnYYYn	0.42	no
Investment	investment	51	23	0.45	nYnnnnnYYn	0.41	no
Radical Left	radical left	35	16	0.46	nYnnYYnnYn	0.37	no
Inflation	inflation	37	15	0.41	nYYnYnYnnn	0.33	no
Economy	economy	29	13	0.45	nnnnnnnnYn	0.32	no
Santa	santa	2	0	0	nn	0.29	no
Maduro	maduro	33	9	0.27	nnnnYnnnYY	0.2	no
Drone	drone	24	2	0.08	nnYnnnnnnn	0.18	no
Woke	woke	35	4	0.11	nnnnnnnnnn	0.16	no