# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · keynote 2026-01-22 · 18 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26JAN22 · as_of 2026-10-24T23:23:02Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-01-22 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 keynote transcripts) · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26JAN22 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Special Address at WEF, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	res
Biden	biden	155	115	0.74	YYYYnnnnYY	1	1	0.69	yes
Trillion	trillion	57	41	0.72	YYYYYYYYnn	1	1	0.69	yes
Tariff	tariff	110	75	0.68	YYYYYYYnnn	1	1	0.62	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	87	55	0.63	YYYnnnnYYY	1	1	0.62	yes
China	china	100	66	0.66	nYnnYYYYnY	1	1	0.61	yes
Border	border	90	54	0.6	YnnnYYYYYn	1	1	0.59	yes
Eight War	eight war	39	24	0.62	YYYYYnnnYn	1	1	0.57	yes
Hottest	hottest	121	70	0.58	YYYYYYnYYY	1	1	0.56	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	84	36	0.43	YYnnYYYnnn	1	1	0.54	yes
NATO	nato	41	19	0.46	nYnYYnnnYY	1	1	0.48	yes
Stock Market	stock market	26	12	0.46	nYYYYYYnnY	1	1	0.48	yes
Invested / Investment	invested|investment	12	6	0.5	YYnnnYYnnY	1	1	0.46	yes
Greenland	greenland	25	10	0.4	nnnYYnnYYY	1	1	0.46	yes
Ukraine	ukraine	42	22	0.52	nYnnnYYnnn	1	1	0.45	yes
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	37	14	0.38	nYnnnnnnYn	1	1	0.43	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	8	3	0.38	nnYYnYnn	1	1	0.43	yes
Manufacturing	manufacturing	15	5	0.33	YnnnnnYnYn	1	0	0.37	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	239	21	0.09	nnnnnnnnYn	1	0	0.18	yes