Will Donald Trump say “Violence / Violent”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Violence / Violent” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 15, 2025.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Violence / Violent
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…all illegal aliens, defunding the police, closing all prisons, releasing thousands of violent criminals to rob, rape, and kill. Why can't I have a candidate…
…been taken off the streets and we've achieved the largest drop in violent crime ever recorded despite the fact that people have come in that…
…so much, Mr. President, about how you've brought crime to record lows, violent crime to record lows, the murder rate to the lowest in 125…
…and we've achieved the largest we have achieved the largest drop in violent crime ever recorded with the murder rate the lowest it's been in…
You said the US could leave Europe if this type of violence continues, what would that look like?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2025 | Violence / Violent |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Violence / Violent”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Violence / Violent” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 15, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Violence / Violent” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Violence / Violent’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/violence-or-violent (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=violence%20%2F%20violent · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP