Will Donald Trump say “Murder”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Murder” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 15, 2025.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Murder
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…fast. We've gotten most of the really bad ones out. And the murder rate sounds horrible to talk about here, but the murder rate is…
…you've brought crime to record lows, violent crime to record lows, the murder rate to the lowest in 125 years, but now you're bringing cybercrime…
…emptied out their prisons. They were drug dealers. They were murderers. 11,888 murders. And I'll tell you what, it's the hardest thing that the inflation…
…result, last year we achieved the largest drop in violent crime ever recorded. The murder rate has plummeted to its lowest level in 125 years.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2025 | Murder |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Murder”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Murder” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 15, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Murder” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Murder’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/murder (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=murder · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP