# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-09-15 · 25 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP15 · as_of 2026-10-24T02:38:47Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-09-15 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP15 ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} as part of Trump signs a Presidential Memorandum in the Oval Office at 4:00 PM, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	51	41	0.8	YYYnYYYYYn	0.81	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	28	23	0.82	YYYYYYnnYY	0.72	hist	no
China	china	33	28	0.85	YYYYYnnYYY	0.7	hist	yes
The Left / Radical Left	radical left|the left	0	0			0.49	hist	yes
NATO	nato	21	9	0.43	nnYnnYYYYY	0.48	hist	no
Investment	investment	9	4	0.44	nnYYYYnnn	0.45	hist	no
DOJ / Justice	doj|justice	0	0			0.43	hist	yes
Transgender	transgender	20	11	0.55	YnnnYYYYnY	0.41	hist	no
Russia / Ukraine	russia|ukraine	2	1	0.5	nY	0.41	hist	no
Antifa	antifa	0	0			0.39	hist	yes
Crime	crime	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.36	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.34	hist	yes
TikTok	tiktok	11	3	0.27	nYYnnnnnnn	0.34	hist	yes
Gaza / Israel	gaza|israel	4	1	0.25	nnYn	0.34	hist	yes
College / University	college|university	0	0			0.34	hist	yes
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	0	0			0.34	hist	no
Oil	oil	10	2	0.2	YnnnnnYnnn	0.24	hist	no
Sanction	sanction	13	2	0.15	nYnnnnnnnn	0.2	hist	no
Charlie	charlie	0	0			0.38	prior	yes
Fund / Funding	fund|funding	0	0			0.38	prior	no
Investigate / Investigation	investigate|investigation	0	0			0.38	prior	yes
Murder	murder	0	0			0.38	prior	yes
Republican	republican	0	0			0.38	prior	yes
RICO	rico	0	0			0.38	prior	yes
Violence / Violent	violence|violent	0	0			0.38	prior	yes