# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · interview 2025-11-12 · 20 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25NOV12 · as_of 2026-10-24T23:23:02Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-12 · tn/th blank: no interview transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25NOV12 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of The Ingraham Angle on November 11th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	99	77	0.78	YYYYYnYYnY	0.77	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	59	36	0.61	nnnYYnYnnn	0.5	hist	no
Oil	oil	29	10	0.34	YYYnnnnYnY	0.49	hist	no
Investment	investment	29	15	0.52	YYYYYnYYnn	0.48	hist	yes
New York	new york	12	6	0.5	YnnYnYYYnn	0.47	hist	no
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	7	4	0.57	YYYnYnn	0.46	hist	no
Border	border	62	37	0.6	YYYnYnnnnn	0.45	hist	no
Trump	trump	18	8	0.44	nnnYnnYYnY	0.45	hist	yes
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	44	19	0.43	nYnYnYYnnY	0.43	hist	no
Stock Market	stock market	12	5	0.42	YnnYYnnnnn	0.43	hist	no
Syria	syria	7	4	0.57	nnYYYYn	0.42	hist	no
Rare Earth / Mineral	mineral|rare earth	15	6	0.4	YnnnYYnnYn	0.41	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	60	33	0.55	YnYnnYnnnn	0.39	hist	no
Air Traffic	air traffic	1	0	0	n	0.39	hist	no
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	19	9	0.47	YnYYnnnnnn	0.32	hist	no
National Guard	national guard	21	8	0.38	nYnnnnYnnn	0.29	hist	no
Ballroom	ballroom	12	4	0.33	YYYnnnnnnn	0.29	hist	yes
ICE	ice	17	3	0.18	nnnnnnnnnn	0.2	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	176	18	0.1	Ynnnnnnnnn	0.18	hist	no
Magnet	magnet	0	0			0.42	prior	no