# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-05-08 · 21 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25MAY08 · as_of 2026-10-24T07:47:48Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-05-08 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25MAY08 ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} as part of the Trade Announcement originally scheduled for 10:00 AM ET in the Oval Office, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Tariff	tariff	12	11	0.92	YYYYYYnYYY	0.68	hist	yes
China	china	15	13	0.87	nYnYYYYYYY	0.65	hist	yes
Russia	russia	11	9	0.82	YYYnYnYYYY	0.6	hist	yes
Biden	biden	19	14	0.74	YnnYYYnYYY	0.54	hist	yes
Mexico	mexico	9	7	0.78	YYnYYnYYY	0.51	hist	no
Deal	deal	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	yes
Chip	chip	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.46	hist	yes
Border	border	7	6	0.86	YYYYYYn	0.45	hist	no
Japan	japan	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.42	hist	no
India	india	1	1	1	Y	0.41	hist	no
Reciprocal	reciprocal	5	3	0.6	YYYnn	0.37	hist	no
G7 / G-7	g 7|g7	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.36	hist	no
Canada	canada	6	3	0.5	YYnnYn	0.34	hist	no
UK / United Kingdom	uk|united kingdom	1	0	0	n	0.34	hist	yes
EU / European Union	eu|european union	1	0	0	n	0.33	hist	yes
Automobile	automobile	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Drug	drug	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Import	import	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Luxury	luxury	0	0			0.36	prior	yes
Pakistan	pakistan	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Pharmaceutical	pharmaceutical	0	0			0.36	prior	no