# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-12-03 · 21 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC03 · as_of 2026-10-25T05:46:58Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-12-03 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC03 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Announcement on December 2nd, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	116	90	0.78	YnYYYnYYYY	0.71	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	74	54	0.73	YYYnYnnYYn	0.71	hist	yes
Trillion	trillion	31	22	0.71	nYYYYYYnYn	0.68	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	42	30	0.71	nnYnYYYYYY	0.65	hist	yes
China	china	74	55	0.74	nYnYYYnnYn	0.63	hist	yes
Ukraine	ukraine	30	18	0.6	nYnYYYYnnY	0.55	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	81	42	0.52	YYYnnnnYYY	0.55	hist	yes
Election	election	43	26	0.6	nYnYYYYnnY	0.53	hist	yes
Border	border	70	41	0.59	nnnnnYnYYY	0.51	hist	no
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	8	5	0.62	nYnYYYnY	0.47	hist	no
Israel	israel	46	25	0.54	nYYYYYnnnn	0.47	hist	no
Somali / Somalia	somali|somalia	0	0			0.47	hist	no
Investment	investment	42	20	0.48	nnYYYYnnnn	0.44	hist	yes
Healthcare	healthcare	13	7	0.54	nYYnYYYnnn	0.42	hist	no
Wealth / Wealthy	wealth|wealthy	0	0			0.42	hist	no
National Guard	national guard	23	8	0.35	nnnnYnnnnn	0.41	hist	no
Dead Country	dead country	9	3	0.33	YnYnnYnnn	0.36	hist	no
Stock Market	stock market	19	7	0.37	nnnnnnnnYY	0.32	hist	yes
Maduro	maduro	15	5	0.33	YnnYYnnYnn	0.29	hist	no
Inflation	inflation	23	10	0.43	YnYnYnnnnY	0.28	hist	no
One Big Beautiful Bill	one big beautiful bill	0	0			0.41	prior	yes