Will Jerome Powell say “Replace / Replaced / Replacement”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Replace / Replaced / Replacement” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 19, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Replace / Replaced / Replacement
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…extent of the tariff shock will be as the Administration moves to replace some of the tariffs that were overturned. So I suppose I’m curious,…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…have induced people to do more automation and do more things with computers to replace people. And that raises productivity, you know, output per hour.
So it’s a lot of things. And it doesn’t replace government data, but you know all of these, it’s—I’ll just mention some of the many,…
…know—much more productive. And there are those who think it’s going to replace an awful lot of jobs right across the income spectrum—you know, white…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | Replace / Replaced / Replacement |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Replace / Replaced / Replacement”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Replace / Replaced / Replacement” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 19, 2026.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Replace / Replaced / Replacement” next time?
- 22%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Replace / Replaced / Replacement’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/replace-or-replaced-or-replacement (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=replace%20%2F%20replaced%20%2F%20replacement · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP