Jerome Powell: Keynote, Apr 4, 2025
Kalshi What will Jerome Powell say at the SABEW Conference?
Markets
21 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Energy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| GDP / Gross Domestic Product | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Market | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recession | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Atlanta Fed | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Auto / Automotive | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Good afternoon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Good morning | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Investor | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Liberation Day | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| President | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reciprocal | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stagflation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trade Deficit | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trade war | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Yield curve | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXJPOWMENTION-25APR04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP