Will Jerome Powell say “Stock”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Stock” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 4, 2025.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Stock
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…consumption and growth coming in the form of wealth effects with the stock market down, in the form of gas prices diverting spending from other…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…that higher-income households tend to own real estate and tend to own stocks, stocks and securities, and those assets have been going up in value,…
…are really driving spending right now. They’re backed by home equity and stock market wealth. But lowerincome consumers are really struggling with the accumulation of…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…weighted average maturity of our portfolio closer to that of the outstanding stock of Treasury securities, thus furthering the normalization of the composition of our…
…a follow-up. This rate cut is coming at a time when the stock market is at or near all-time highs. And some valuation metrics are…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2025 | Stock |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Stock”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Stock” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 4, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Stock” next time?
- 29%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Stock’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/stock (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=stock · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP