# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · speech 2025-02-20 · 34 words · K k:KXDJTRGA-25FEB20 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-republican-governors-association-appearance · as_of 2026-10-24T19:26:45Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2025-02-20 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXDJTRGA-25FEB20 ({word} = w of K rows): If President Trump says {word} as part of his speech at RGA, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-republican-governors-association-appearance (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at this event.
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
McDonald's	mcdonald	1	K	24	16	0.67	YYYYYnnnnn	0.52	hist	no
Border	border	1	K	2	2	1	YY	0.5	hist	yes
ICE	ice	1	K	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	no
Rocket	rocket	1	K	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	no
Fraud	fraud	1	K	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.48	hist	yes
Tax 10+ times	tax#10	10	P	4	3	0.75	YnYY	0.45	hist	no
America First	america first	1	P	1	1	1	Y	0.43	hist	yes
Million/Billion 15+ times	billion|million#15	15	P	0	0			0.43	hist	yes
Border 5+ times	border#5	5	P	10	6	0.6	YYnYYYnYnn	0.42	hist	yes
Crypto/Cryptocurrency/Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto|cryptocurrency	1	K	2	0	0	nn	0.37	hist	no
DEI / Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion	dei|diversity equity and inclusion	1	K	2	0	0	nn	0.37	hist	yes
Woke	woke	1	K	2	0	0	nn	0.37	hist	no
Elon 5+ times	elon#5	5	P	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.35	hist	no
Saudi Arabia	saudi arabia	1	P	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.35	hist	no
Fentanyl/Fent	fent|fentanyl	1	P	0	0			0.33	hist	no
Bitcoin/Crypto	bitcoin|crypto	1	P	59	2	0.03	nnnYnnnnYn	0.13	hist	no
Brian/Kemp	brian|kemp	1	K	0	0			0.45	prior	yes
Education	education	1	K	0	0			0.45	prior	yes
Gavin/Newsom	gavin|newsom	1	K	0	0			0.45	prior	no
Glenn/Youngkin	glenn|youngkin	1	K	0	0			0.45	prior	no
Greg/Gianforte	gianforte|greg	1	K	0	0			0.45	prior	yes
Kay/Ivey	ivey|kay	1	K	0	0			0.45	prior	no
Kelly/Ayotte	ayotte|kelly	1	K	0	0			0.45	prior	yes
Lawfare	lawfare	1	K	0	0			0.45	prior	no
Tate/Reeves	reeve|tate	1	K	0	0			0.45	prior	no
Condom	condom	1	P	0	0			0.38	prior	yes
Engine	engine	1	P	0	0			0.38	prior	no
Golden Age	golden age	1	P	0	0			0.38	prior	yes
Hell 5+ times	hell#5	5	P	0	0			0.38	prior	yes
Mandate	mandate	1	P	0	0			0.38	prior	yes
Stupid	stupid	1	P	0	0			0.38	prior	no
Tariff 10+ times	tariff#10	10	P	0	0			0.38	prior	yes
Tax 8+ times	tax#8	8	P	0	0			0.38	prior	no
Trump 3+ times	trump#3	3	P	0	0			0.38	prior	no