Will Scott Bessent say “Iran / Iranian”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Iran / Iranian” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 22, 2026 (75%), most recently on Oct 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 59% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press briefings; Apr 29, 2025 – May 28, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Scott Bessent
Iran / Iranian
- Probability
- 59% · n=4
- Settled
- 3/4 (75%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 2 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…the cabinet meeting, that he -- he has several red lines. And Iran has to turn over their highly enriched uranium. They cannot pursue a…
…and for over a year, we have had maximum pressure on the Iranians, both on blocking payments into the Iranian state and going after the…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Iran / Iranian |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Scott Bessent say “Iran / Iranian”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Iran / Iranian” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 22, 2026 (75%), most recently on Oct 18, 2026.
- What is the probability Scott Bessent says “Iran / Iranian” next time?
- 59%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Scott Bessent: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/scott-bessent/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=scott-bessent&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=scott-bessent&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP