Will Scott Bessent say “Fed / Federal Reserve / Warsh”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Fed / Federal Reserve / Warsh” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 23, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 62% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press briefings; Apr 29, 2025 – May 28, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Scott Bessent
Fed / Federal Reserve / Warsh
- Probability
- 62% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 2 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Real GDP has risen 2.6 percent over the past four quarters. Atlanta Fed's GDP Now predicts 3.8 percent for this quarter, second quarter. The US…
…that the process that we have laid out in terms of Kevin Warsh becoming the next Fed chair, he's going to have the hearing on…
…manufacturing, we've seen some pretty grisly surveys this month from the Philly Fed, which saw the biggest drop since May of 2020, and the Dallas…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Fed / Federal Reserve / Warsh |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Fed / Federal Reserve / Warsh | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Scott Bessent say “Fed / Federal Reserve / Warsh”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Fed / Federal Reserve / Warsh” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 23, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 18, 2026.
- What is the probability Scott Bessent says “Fed / Federal Reserve / Warsh” next time?
- 62%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Scott Bessent: ‘Fed / Federal Reserve / Warsh’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/scott-bessent/words/fed-or-federal-reserve-or-warsh (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=scott-bessent&word=fed%20%2F%20federal%20reserve%20%2F%20warsh · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=scott-bessent&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP