What is the probability Bernie Sanders says “Shutdown / Shut Down” next time?

23%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Bernie Sanders say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?

Name: Bernie Sanders: “Shutdown / Shut Down” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, Bernie Sanders did not say “Shutdown / Shut Down” at any of the 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 27, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 23% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.

23%from settlement history only · n=6counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 0/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no
Streak: not said the last 6 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 07:00 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Bernie Sanders

Shutdown / Shut Down

Probability: 23% · n=6
Settled: 0/6 (0%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Bernie Sanders yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Bernie say during his rally in Houston? · not listed

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What will Bernie say during his rally in El Paso? · not listed

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What will Bernie say during his rally in Amarillo? · not listed

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What will Bernie say during his rally in Tallahassee? · not listed

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What will Bernie say during his rally in Gainesville? · not listed

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What will Bernie say during his rally in Melbourne? · not listed

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What will Bernie say during his rally in Tampa? · not listed

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What will Bernie say during his Ballots Over Billionaires Rally in Los Angeles? · not listed

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What will Bernie say during his Fighting Oligarchy rally? · not listed

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What will Bernie say during his Ballots Over Billionaires Rally? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 7 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Apr 12, 2026	Shutdown / Shut Down	Polymarket	No
Apr 12, 2026	Shutdown / Shut Down	Kalshi	No
Mar 29, 2026	Shutdown / Shut Down	Kalshi	No
Mar 28, 2026	Shutdown / Shut Down	Polymarket	No
Mar 28, 2026	Shutdown / Shut Down	Kalshi	No
Feb 11, 2026	Shutdown / Shut Down	Kalshi	No
Oct 27, 2025	Shutdown / Shut Down	Kalshi	No

Questions

How often does Bernie Sanders say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?: As of Oct 25, 2026, Bernie Sanders did not say “Shutdown / Shut Down” at any of the 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 27, 2025.
What is the probability Bernie Sanders says “Shutdown / Shut Down” next time?: 23%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Bernie Sanders: ‘Shutdown / Shut Down’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/bernie-sanders/words/shut-down-or-shutdown (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=bernie-sanders&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=bernie-sanders&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP