What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Housing” next time?

44%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Housing”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Housing” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Housing” at 5 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 27, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jun 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview; Oct 8, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4. No keynotes among them yet.

44%from settlement history only · n=10Next: Keynote, Nov 18, 2026 · counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no yes yes no no no yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only
Market: 69¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 13:53 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Housing

Probability: 44% · n=10
Settled: 5/10 (50%)
Last 8 transcripts: said in 4 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (6 remarks, 1 press conference, 1 interview); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Re-Opens Edenwald’s Community, Senior and Child Care Centers · Oct 23, 2026In transcript

…administration. I'll start on the inside. We have our deputy mayor for Housing and Planning, Leila Bozorg, who is here with us. We have the…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Expands Community-Based Violence Prevention to Bushwick, Harlem, and Washington Heights/Inwood · Oct 20, 2026In transcript

…the kind of supports and services that addressed needs that had been longstanding in his life. A lack of stable housing, a lack of employment.

Comptroller LevineotherMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

…as Pennsylvania and returning here to work sometimes with two-hour commutes. Yes, housing is driving that, but number two is childcare. We must do better…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…tax affirmation documents and focus on helping low-income New Yorkers access the housing resources they need. Bronx Giants can stop filling out lobbying certification forms…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Appears on Univision's ¡Despierta América! · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…you're a family in the Bronx waiting for the construction of affordable housing, these ballot proposals are about whether or not that housing construction can…