Tesla (TSLA): FY25 Q3 earnings call, Oct 22, 2025
On its Oct 22, 2025 earnings call (FY25 Q3), Tesla said 17 of the 28 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 28 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
28 words · 17 settled yes · our count agreed on 28 of 28- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optimus | Yes | 37 | 37 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Optimus 3+ times | Yes | 37 | 37 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FSD / Full Self Driving | Yes | 17 | 18 | ✓ | 97%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Energy | Yes | 12 | 12 | ✓ | 94%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Grok | Yes | 12 | 12 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Robotaxi 10+ times | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Robotaxi 5+ times | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Robotaxi | Yes | 10 | 11 | ✓ | 92%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Battery | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 91%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation | Yes | 6 | 8 | ✓ | 93%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Delivery | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 86%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Margin | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 88%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Supercharger / Super Charger | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 16%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Autonomous | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 95%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| China | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 93%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Competition | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 40%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Cybertruck | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 64%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Acquisition | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bigger and longer | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Diner | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recession | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 51%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Gigafactory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Grok4 | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 40%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Inflation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
12 matches for “Megapack”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…energy sector with battery storage. With both Powerwall and especially with the Megapack, we are dramatically improving the ability to generate more energy from the…
…want the advanced software," and you will get version 14. On the Megapack front, we unveiled Megablock, Mega Pack three. We also have exciting plans…
…it's not dependent on building a substation up through 35 KB for MegaPack four. That's the engineering priority for Megapack. We look forward to unveiling…
Great. The next question is, what is the demand and backlog for Megapack, Powerwall, solar, or energy storage systems? With the current AI boom, is…
…center applications as hyperscalers and utilities have seen the versatility of the Megapack product. It increases reliability and relieves grid constraints, as Elon was talking…
Where the listed words were said
…otherwise. We are also on the cusp of something really tremendous with Optimus, which I think is likely to be, has the potential to be,…
…It's not just an obvious fall of a log thing to make Optimus, but we do have the ingredients of real-world AI and exceptional electrical…
…really just at the beginning of scaling at a quite massive level, full self-driving and robotaxi, and fundamentally changing the nature of transport. I think…
…the big difference between day and night usage. If you buffer the energy with batteries, you can effectively double the energy output in the United…
Yeah. There are different forms of AI. The XAI, so Grok is like a giant model. You could not possibly squeeze Grok onto a car.…
…Standard Y in North America and EMEA. We are now operating a robotaxi in two markets, Austin and most various cities. We have already expanded…
…in our insurance and service center businesses. Note that while small, our robotaxi costs are included within services and other along with our other businesses…
From say.com, the first question is, what are the latest robo taxi metrics fleet size, cumulative miles, rides completed, intervention rates, when will safety drivers…
…I've initiated every one of those startups. We didn't used to make battery packs, stationary battery packs, but now we do. We make them for…
…still small, around 12% of our current fleet. We are working with regulators in places like China and EMEA to obtain approvals so that we…
…special quarter at multiple levels. We set new records not just for deliveries and deployments, but also around a range of financial metrics from total…
…into new contracts and continued delivery on previously entered contracts. Our automotive margins, excluding credits, increased marginally from 15% to 15.4%. This was attributed to…
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