Will Tesla say “Full Self-Driving / FSD”?
Tesla said “Full Self-Driving / FSD” 21 times on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on each of its last 8 calls: 32, 7, 18, 17, 12, 29, 17, 21 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, Tesla said “Full Self-Driving / FSD” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 22, 2025 (83%), most recently on Apr 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 26% (n=6, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 5/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- company speakers
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Tesla
Full Self-Driving / FSD
- Probability
- 26% · n=6
- Settled
- 5/6 (83%)
- Last calls
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
21 counted (8 in prepared remarks, 13 in Q&A); 7 by speakers the rule does not count.
…and we are ramping production meaningfully. The biggest driver for demand is Full Self-Driving. Today, there is really no competitor for FSD in any car…
…records in key markets including Australia, Japan, and Taiwan. As Elon said, FSD continues to be the key driver for demand. In Q3, over 75%…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
17 counted (17 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…board. Its popularity is increasing tremendously. We're seeing in locations that have FSD approved, we're seeing a very high take rate of FSD. In fact,…
…into our stores in the U.S. and telling me they want the Full Self-Driving and with whatever car it comes with, essentially. Clearly this is…
Counts: company speakers + operator
29 counted (8 in prepared remarks, 21 in Q&A); 9 by speakers the rule does not count.
…autonomy-ready, depending on what part of the world you're in. The supervised Full Self-Driving is getting extremely good. We have just started production of Cybercab,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Full Self-Driving / FSD |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Full Self-Driving / FSD | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Apr 22, 2026 | FSD / Full Self Driving | Kalshi | Yes | 29 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Full Self-Driving / FSD |  Polymarket | Yes | 12 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | FSD / Full Self Driving | Kalshi | Yes | 12 |
| Oct 22, 2025 | FSD / Full Self Driving | Kalshi | Yes | 17 |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Full Self-Driving / FSD | Kalshi | Yes | 18 |
| Apr 22, 2025 | Full Self-Driving / FSD | Kalshi | Yes | 7 |
Questions
- How many times did Tesla say “Full Self-Driving / FSD” on its last earnings call?
- Tesla said “Full Self-Driving / FSD” 21 times on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on each of its last 8 calls: 32, 7, 18, 17, 12, 29, 17, 21 times.
- How often does Tesla say “Full Self-Driving / FSD”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Tesla said “Full Self-Driving / FSD” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 22, 2025 (83%), most recently on Apr 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Tesla says “Full Self-Driving / FSD” next time?
- 26%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers.
Cite parrot.markets, “Tesla: ‘Full Self-Driving / FSD’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/TSLA/words/fsd-or-full-self-driving (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tesla&word=fsd%20%2F%20full%20self%20driving · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tesla&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP