Tesla (TSLA): FY25 Q3 earnings call, Oct 22, 2025
On its Oct 22, 2025 earnings call (FY25 Q3), Tesla said 17 of the 28 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 28 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
28 words · 17 settled yes · our count agreed on 28 of 28- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optimus | Yes | 37 | 37 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Optimus 3+ times | Yes | 37 | 37 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FSD / Full Self Driving | Yes | 17 | 18 | ✓ | 97%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Energy | Yes | 12 | 12 | ✓ | 94%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Grok | Yes | 12 | 12 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Robotaxi 10+ times | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Robotaxi 5+ times | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Robotaxi | Yes | 10 | 11 | ✓ | 92%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Battery | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 91%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation | Yes | 6 | 8 | ✓ | 93%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Delivery | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 86%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Margin | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 88%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Supercharger / Super Charger | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 16%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Autonomous | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 95%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| China | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 93%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Competition | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 40%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Cybertruck | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 64%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Acquisition | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bigger and longer | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Diner | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recession | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 51%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Gigafactory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Grok4 | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 40%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Inflation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
39 matches for “Car”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…has the highest intelligence density of any AI out there in the car. And that is only going to get better. We are really just…
…honestly going to be like a shock wave. So it's because the cars are all out there. We have millions of cars out there that,…
…by Ford or GM or, you know, in the by USC of car companies. People might think of Tesla as a car company that mostly…
…they just go and select "I want the advanced software" in their car. If you're listening right now and you'd like to try it out,…
…it's actually a robot. Obviously, the real-world intelligence we've developed for the car, most of that transfers to Optimus. It's a very good starting point.…
Where the listed words were said
…four. That's the engineering priority for Megapack. We look forward to unveiling Optimus b three probably in Q1. I think it'll be ready to show…
…is no poverty, where everyone has access to the finest medical care. Optimus will be an incredible surgeon, for example. Imagine if everyone had access…
…was ready to do that until we had clarity on achieving unsupervised full self-driving. But at this point, I feel like we've got clarity, and…
…with the Megapack, we are dramatically improving the ability to generate more energy from the grid. Let me sort of talk a little bit about…
Yeah. There are different forms of AI. The XAI, so Grok is like a giant model. You could not possibly squeeze Grok onto a car.…
…Standard Y in North America and EMEA. We are now operating a robotaxi in two markets, Austin and most various cities. We have already expanded…
…in our insurance and service center businesses. Note that while small, our robotaxi costs are included within services and other along with our other businesses…
From say.com, the first question is, what are the latest robo taxi metrics fleet size, cumulative miles, rides completed, intervention rates, when will safety drivers…
…difference between day and night usage. If you buffer the energy with batteries, you can effectively double the energy output in the United States just…
…still small, around 12% of our current fleet. We are working with regulators in places like China and EMEA to obtain approvals so that we…
…special quarter at multiple levels. We set new records not just for deliveries and deployments, but also around a range of financial metrics from total…
…into new contracts and continued delivery on previously entered contracts. Our automotive margins, excluding credits, increased marginally from 15% to 15.4%. This was attributed to…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/tesla:2025-10-22:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=tesla:2025-10-22:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP