Prime Minister's Questions, Jan 29, 2026
Kalshi What will Keir Starmer say at Prime Minister's Questions?
Markets
11 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| NHS / National Health Service | No | 70%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 66%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 42%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Tax | No | 42%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland / Denmark | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Burnham | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NATO | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Twitter / X | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Greens | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Debt | No | 10%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 8%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSTARMERMENTION-26JAN29 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP