Prime Minister's Questions, Jan 28, 2026
Polymarket What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Markets
15 words · 4 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ally / Allied | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| International | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mr. Speaker 15+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Opportunity | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine | No | 69%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Denmark / Greenland | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Reform 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 39%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Constructive | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Dialogue | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rules-based | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Thank you 10+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Venezuela | No | 21%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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