Prime Minister's Questions, Jan 14, 2026
Polymarket What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Markets
12 words · 6 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reform | Yes | 74%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| NHS / National Health Service | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tax | Yes | 33%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | 26%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Venezuela | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | 46%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Debt | No | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 17%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event-773 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP