Prime Minister's Questions, Apr 29, 2026
Polymarket What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Markets
27 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mr. Speaker 20+ times | Yes | 81%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Mr. Speaker 10+ times | Yes | 74%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| War | Yes | 73%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| NHS | Yes | 69%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Mr. Speaker 30+ times | Yes | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 30%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Renewable | Yes | 21%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| United States | Yes | 21%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| U-Turn | No | 57%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Apologize / Apology | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Friendship | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Housing | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Macroeconomy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mental Health | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Victim | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Green | No | 38%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Crisis | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine | No | 32%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sport | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Surveillance | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tolerance | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Europe | No | 26%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Deeply Concerning | No | 21%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Shadow Secretary | No | 21%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Urgent | No | 21%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 18%n=27 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event-525 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP