Prime Minister's Questions, Feb 19, 2026
Kalshi What will Keir Starmer say at Prime Minister's Questions
Markets
12 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reform | No | 82%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| NHS / National Health Service | No | 55%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 35%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Tax | No | 33%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 33%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Poverty | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NATO | No | 11%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Debt | No | 6%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 5%n=15 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSTARMERMENTIONB-26FEB19 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP