Prime Minister's Questions, Feb 11, 2026
Polymarket What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Markets
18 words · 4 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mr. Speaker 15+ times | Yes | 71%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Opportunity | Yes | 71%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| McSweeney | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ally / Allied | No | 71%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| International | No | 71%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 46%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Reform 3+ times | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mandelson | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Denmark / Greenland | No | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 36%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Constructive | No | 23%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Dialogue | No | 23%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 23%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Rules-based | No | 23%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Thank you 10+ times | No | 23%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | No | 16%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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