Prime Minister's Questions, Dec 17, 2025
Polymarket What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Markets
15 words · 12 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Budget | Yes | 70%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Cost of Living | Yes | 70%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| NHS | Yes | 70%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 70%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Reform 4+ times | Yes | 70%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Thousand / Million / Billion 15+ times | Yes | 63%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Christmas | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Home Office | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mr Speaker 25+ times | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Scotland | Yes | 33%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| United Kingdom | Yes | 30%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 26%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Labour 8+ times | No | 21%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-keir-starmer-say-at-the-next-prime-ministers-questions-event-812 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP