Will Mark Carney say “China”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Carney said “China” at 4 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 18, 2026 (44%), most recently on Apr 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
43%from settlement history only · n=9Next: Keynote, Nov 18, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 4/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes yes no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 46¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mark Carney
China
- Probability
- 43% · n=9
- Settled
- 4/9 (44%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Mark Carney yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Mark Carney say “China”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Carney said “China” at 4 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 18, 2026 (44%), most recently on Apr 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Mark Carney says “China” next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Carney: ‘China’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/mark-carney/words/china (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-carney&word=china · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-carney&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP