Donald Trump: Remarks, Apr 14, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during Bukele events on April 14?
Markets
17 words · 5 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 57%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 3+ times | Yes | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion 15+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Joe / Biden 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Venezuela 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tren de Aragua | No | 44%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Border 10+ times | No | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Beach | No | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Colorado | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Claudia / Sheinbaum | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Emergency | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Strategic Reserve | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tom / Homan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Volcano | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Judge | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=78 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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