Donald Trump: Remarks, Apr 17, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during Meloni events on April 17?
Markets
16 words · 2 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Putin | Yes | 61%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Africa | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff 10+ times | No | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine 3+ times | No | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Deficit | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Denmark | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Billion / Trillion 15+ times | No | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Heritage | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| EU / European Union | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Italy 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Leadership | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mediterranean | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rome | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Witkoff | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| France / Paris | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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