Donald Trump: Speech, Aug 23, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Arizona speech?
Markets
16 words · 11 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alien 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border Czar | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Debate | Yes | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA | Yes | 55%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | Yes | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Marxist | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nasty | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Orbán | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Comrade Kamala 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Insane Asylum | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| World War 3 | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Beach | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Space Force | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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