Donald Trump: Speech, Aug 22, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during border speech?
Markets
13 words · 7 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Comrade Kamala | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Alien 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border Czar | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Insane Asylum | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tampon | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA | No | 66%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| China 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| World War 3 | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fracking | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hannibal Lecter | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-border-speech · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP