Donald Trump: Episode, Jun 22, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during Iran address tonight?
Markets
11 words · 2 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fordow | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Netanyahu | Yes | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Make America Great Again | No | 61%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| B-2 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bunker buster | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Regime Change | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reza / Pahlavi | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Surrender | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Uranium | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Invade / Invasion | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-iran-address-tonight · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP