Zohran Mamdani: Remarks, Aug 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Mamdani say during his Dominican Heritage Reception?
Markets
13 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Five Borough | Yes | 68%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Avila / Chevalier | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | Yes | 33%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 70%n=111 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | No | 66%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| Trump / President | No | 52%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| Parade | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Governor / Hochul | No | 45%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| NYPD | No | 35%n=110 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 34%n=107 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 12%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | No | 5%n=70 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMAMDANIMENTION-26AUG15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP